fatchadlitecel
Gymcel coper
To answer this you need this info:
What does saturation mean?
It means a woman can get reliably get a ~HTN+ 6ft tall westerner if she waits long enough and can pass on MTN and shorter foreign guys that try to geomax, basically recreating the same dynamic that exists in the west.
How many women can a ~HTN+ 6ft tall western dude saturate?
Given how fucked the dating dynamics are in the west, if we replicate that in Asia then we have to assume something like 10:1 minimum, possibly as high as 100:1.
How many of those exist total that can geomax?
6ft, above average income, not fat, white, not oldcel, we have 1.2% of the US population, for simplicity we could double whatever this number is to include Europe, Australia, Canada, etc. But if we only consider the top half of men in terms of facial attractiveness, we can just use this 1.2% number for America. You might say Europeans aren't as fat which is true, but Europeans also aren't as rich, so it kind of balances itself out demographically I would guess.
3,954,000
So about 4 million western guys exist where their presence can start destroying the local dating market for geomaxxers. How many of those will actually do it? It would depend on how popular this gets.
@AlexBrown84 has claimed that Thailand is becoming saturated or is already there. Pre-covid tourism levels to Thailand were about 40 million/year with many of those young men. But that includes non-westerners and women.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/994693/thailand-number-international-tourist-arrivals/
As we can see below, the amount of westerners going to Thailand is about 4.528 million. And I can't find new stats but it's somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of tourists from the west are women. We should probably assume 1/3.
So total we should expect about 3 million men from the western population who can afford to go to Thailand yearly will go. That represents about 23.9% of the general population, using the same income as above.
To get the relative proportion of that population that are "chads" we do 1.2 / 23.9 = ~5%. Therefore we should assume at least 150,000 good looking western dudes are coming to Thailand every year. Remember that that is 150,000 out of 4 million, or about 3.75% for just Thailand.
If we double that amount to account for other geomaxing locations (Thailand is the most popular, but there are some other popular spots like Colombia, Philippines, etc.), that would imply about 7.5% of people who can destroy dating markets are actively doing it. But their average length of stay is probably pretty short. Likely less than a month. Let's assume the average trip is 2 weeks during dry season (Nov - April). That's 52 weeks / 2 = 26 weeks / 2 = 13 periods. So the 150,000 number is spread out over 13 periods of time, giving us a figure of 11,538 on average in the country at any given time during tourist season.
How many women exist for them to saturate? Let's count only women under 30 and over 14. That gives us ~6.9m as seen below
We get a ratio of 598:1
So 598 young Thai women exist in the country for every chad that's in the country at any given (relevant) time. But there are probably peak periods, so maybe it's more like 300:1 or even 150:1 during some weeks. Or if you consider that many people go specifically to Bangkok which is only 1/7 of the total population, this could also reduce the ratio to something like 50:1 and create the situation where @AlexBrown84 see's it starting to be saturated.
If we "saturate" the market completely by turning every chad into a geomaxer that goes somewhere for 2 weeks, with half going to Thailand, we need to divide 11,538 / 0.075 = 153,840
At that ratio, we get a ratio of 45:1 women to "chad" and it's probably worse if you consider that they are concentrated in Bangkok, possibly somewhere in the 10:1 to 20:1 range considering there's more young women in large cities than average.
So at peak saturation, we could see something like the replication of the western dating market in a tourist country like Thailand. However, other countries have far less visitors, even just taking into account the entry level Asian countries. As seen below. I am not going to calculate the other ones but Vietnam, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. are so populous and rarely visited by foreigners, so I think it's safe to assume they will remain unsaturated although will have higher difficulty associated with navigating them.
We can also do a raw math calculation on those numbers
4,000,000 chads / 38,400,000 young Asian women => 1: 9.6
Multiply female ratio by 26 periods of 2 weeks stays
9.6 x 26 = 249.6 => 1: 249.6
So even if every chad geomaxxed in just these countries below, the ratio wouldn't go over 250:1 for women to chad and it's likely to remain possible for sub HTN's to geomax SOMEWHERE in Asia. This does not even count China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia where it's also possible and there are huge numbers of women.
So chances are it WILL exist in some form decades from now with a chance that specific currently popular countries will get saturated.
With that in mind it might make sense to go to places like Thailand and Colombia before they are ruined in the next few years and then move onto others.
Countries within the western orbit or are entry level for foreigners to navigate ~38.4m
Hong Kong ~0.5m
Singapore ~0.8m
Japan ~8.7m
South Korea ~4.4m
Taiwan ~2.1m
Philippines ~15m
Thailand ~6.9m
What does saturation mean?
It means a woman can get reliably get a ~HTN+ 6ft tall westerner if she waits long enough and can pass on MTN and shorter foreign guys that try to geomax, basically recreating the same dynamic that exists in the west.
How many women can a ~HTN+ 6ft tall western dude saturate?
Given how fucked the dating dynamics are in the west, if we replicate that in Asia then we have to assume something like 10:1 minimum, possibly as high as 100:1.
How many of those exist total that can geomax?
6ft, above average income, not fat, white, not oldcel, we have 1.2% of the US population, for simplicity we could double whatever this number is to include Europe, Australia, Canada, etc. But if we only consider the top half of men in terms of facial attractiveness, we can just use this 1.2% number for America. You might say Europeans aren't as fat which is true, but Europeans also aren't as rich, so it kind of balances itself out demographically I would guess.
3,954,000
So about 4 million western guys exist where their presence can start destroying the local dating market for geomaxxers. How many of those will actually do it? It would depend on how popular this gets.
@AlexBrown84 has claimed that Thailand is becoming saturated or is already there. Pre-covid tourism levels to Thailand were about 40 million/year with many of those young men. But that includes non-westerners and women.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/994693/thailand-number-international-tourist-arrivals/
As we can see below, the amount of westerners going to Thailand is about 4.528 million. And I can't find new stats but it's somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of tourists from the west are women. We should probably assume 1/3.
So total we should expect about 3 million men from the western population who can afford to go to Thailand yearly will go. That represents about 23.9% of the general population, using the same income as above.
To get the relative proportion of that population that are "chads" we do 1.2 / 23.9 = ~5%. Therefore we should assume at least 150,000 good looking western dudes are coming to Thailand every year. Remember that that is 150,000 out of 4 million, or about 3.75% for just Thailand.
If we double that amount to account for other geomaxing locations (Thailand is the most popular, but there are some other popular spots like Colombia, Philippines, etc.), that would imply about 7.5% of people who can destroy dating markets are actively doing it. But their average length of stay is probably pretty short. Likely less than a month. Let's assume the average trip is 2 weeks during dry season (Nov - April). That's 52 weeks / 2 = 26 weeks / 2 = 13 periods. So the 150,000 number is spread out over 13 periods of time, giving us a figure of 11,538 on average in the country at any given time during tourist season.
How many women exist for them to saturate? Let's count only women under 30 and over 14. That gives us ~6.9m as seen below
We get a ratio of 598:1
So 598 young Thai women exist in the country for every chad that's in the country at any given (relevant) time. But there are probably peak periods, so maybe it's more like 300:1 or even 150:1 during some weeks. Or if you consider that many people go specifically to Bangkok which is only 1/7 of the total population, this could also reduce the ratio to something like 50:1 and create the situation where @AlexBrown84 see's it starting to be saturated.
If we "saturate" the market completely by turning every chad into a geomaxer that goes somewhere for 2 weeks, with half going to Thailand, we need to divide 11,538 / 0.075 = 153,840
At that ratio, we get a ratio of 45:1 women to "chad" and it's probably worse if you consider that they are concentrated in Bangkok, possibly somewhere in the 10:1 to 20:1 range considering there's more young women in large cities than average.
So at peak saturation, we could see something like the replication of the western dating market in a tourist country like Thailand. However, other countries have far less visitors, even just taking into account the entry level Asian countries. As seen below. I am not going to calculate the other ones but Vietnam, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. are so populous and rarely visited by foreigners, so I think it's safe to assume they will remain unsaturated although will have higher difficulty associated with navigating them.
We can also do a raw math calculation on those numbers
4,000,000 chads / 38,400,000 young Asian women => 1: 9.6
Multiply female ratio by 26 periods of 2 weeks stays
9.6 x 26 = 249.6 => 1: 249.6
So even if every chad geomaxxed in just these countries below, the ratio wouldn't go over 250:1 for women to chad and it's likely to remain possible for sub HTN's to geomax SOMEWHERE in Asia. This does not even count China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia where it's also possible and there are huge numbers of women.
So chances are it WILL exist in some form decades from now with a chance that specific currently popular countries will get saturated.
With that in mind it might make sense to go to places like Thailand and Colombia before they are ruined in the next few years and then move onto others.
Countries within the western orbit or are entry level for foreigners to navigate ~38.4m
Hong Kong ~0.5m
Singapore ~0.8m
Japan ~8.7m
South Korea ~4.4m
Taiwan ~2.1m
Philippines ~15m
Thailand ~6.9m
